Brazil can reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 82%, which would represent a reduction in current annual emissions from 2.8 billion tons of CO2 to 0.5 billion tons of CO2, considering the period 2005-2030. For this, it needs to accelerate the process of transition to a low-carbon economy and increase its goals towards neutrality of net carbon emissions (net zero), being able to achieve market leadership. These are some of the estimates contained in the study Climate and Development: visions for Brazil 2030, led by Centro Clima da COPPE-UFRJ and Instituto Talanoa.

The work was not intended to adopt projects or programs to reduce emissions, but to structure the transition policies for low carbon, based on the opportunities and challenges identified in the country. The initiative had the participation of around 300 experts and leaders, including politicians, businessmen and investors, in addition to the support of Instituto Clima e Sociedade (ICS) and WWF-Brasil.

Deforestation control, forest restoration and carbon pricing are at the heart of this strategy to face the climate crisis in line with the Paris Agreement, which proposes carbon neutrality on the planet in 2050. The document shows the real potential for reduction Brazil in this context, and signals that the Brazilian government’s conservative target of only 43% is directly related to the lack of commitment to combat illegal deforestation.

Zero deforestation

In the most optimistic scenario, the projection considers zero deforestation, the restoration of 4.8 million hectares of forest and most of the emission reductions from land use change and forestry, due to the greater potential for reduction at a lower cost. In this projection, there is a potential to generate 120 thousand new jobs.

In the menu of policy measures recommended to the sector of agriculture, forest and other land uses (AFOLU), the main one is the fight against deforestation and guarantee of public budget for the environmental inspection bodies. In addition, it proposes the creation and expansion of environmental conservation areas, the inclusion of restored areas in permanent preservation areas and the implementation of the forest code in an integral and effective manner.

The document emphasizes that development and decarbonization are complementary, and that a federative pact in favor of preservation and fair transition is needed, with a focus on regulation of the carbon market.